jeudi 2 décembre 2010

Here is a post from the New York Times on Morgan Kelly, one of the prophets of the Irish banking crisis. Highlights include the two videos, the first which shows the arrogance of the former prime minister who accused Kelly of fear mongering. He suggests that pessimists such as Kelly should committ suiciede. The second video is the night of Ireland's fateful decision to guarantee Irish bank deposits. Kelly argues that the Irish banks could be facing two problems. If the problem is non permanent, a simple lack of liquidity, the decision to guarantee the deposits will be an extremely good bluff. It will restore confidence and Irish assets will eventually return to their real value. Subsequently, the Irish government will not have to pay out a single dime. If the problem on the other hand are permanent, if the banks made tons of bad loans and are holding essentially worthless assets than the Irish government would be on the hook for billions. Kelly said the problem was essentially solvency and not liquidity and he was right.

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