Egyptian surprises

Perhaps the biggest surprise for me, and certainly the thing that I got most wrong was how the protesters would initially see the military. I assumed that the protesters would see the military the same way that they saw the police. This seemed logical because because the regime was as much a military state as it was a police state. I thought that the decisive moment would occur when the military took over. The inevitable confrontation would end with a decisive victory for Mubarak because there are too many forces internally and externally backing the military because they are scared to death of a coup. Egypt would not end in a coup as in Tunisia.

The arrival of the military did not lead to confrontation. Instead the soldiers were initially treated like liberators, the military not wanting to create another confrontation let the protesters continue their protests while still tacitly backing Mubarak. Bizarre images of protesters and soldiers intermingled were broadcast across the world.

There are signs that this truce might be beginning to end. The military has asked that the protesters go home, a demand completely unacceptable to the protesters who want to see Mubarak ousted. We will see in the next couple of days how this stand off ends.

Here is the best article on the role of the military in Egypt:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/29/world/middleeast/29forces.html?scp=3&sq=egypt%20army&st=cse