What next?

We now know that Mubarak is going to step down one way or another. The question remains whether it will be a quick relatively bloodless coup as in Tunisia. Or whether the regime will try to stagger into the fall election. I definitely think that while both cases poses risks, the second one may well be more dangerous. If he stays in power as a figurehead, you know that conspiracy theories are going to abound about everything from western manipulation, to voter tampering, and intimidation, sectarian violence might explode which could have extremely deleterious effect on US security.

It seems clear that the US needs to change course: continuing to demand reforms was stupid a week ago, now it is completely irrelevant. Mubarak has agreed to leave before the next election, today's Mubarak is completely powerless and is completely at the mercy of the military, who have basically taken over the country. Surprisingly, the emergence of El Baradei has given the US something of an outlet. He is a moderate politicians who seems well respected by all sides. The US now can make the case (as they did in Tunisia) that Mubarak immediately step down and leave Egypt. This would do two things, it would put the US clearly on the side of the protesters and might give slightly better odds that the new regime will have some similar interests as the US.